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The 10 Rules of Successful Nations
Ruchir SharmaEconomists have failed to predict every US recession since records began, including the Great Recession that rattled the world in 2008.
They are under attack even within their own ranks for being too academic—too focused on elegant mathematical models that pretend humans always act rationally, or on data that is updated too infrequently to foretell big economic shifts.
Everyone knows that forecasting is a mug’s game, but also necessary and unavoidable. Politicians, technocrats, businesspeople, and investors all have a huge stake in predicting the economic rise and fall of nations, since they can’t begin to formulate plans or policies without making an educated estimate as to what is coming next. Getting it right can help billions of people; the costs of getting it wrong are equally large.
This book, culled from my quarter century in the game, outlines ten rules for spotting whether a country is on the rise, on the decline, or just muddling through. Together, the rules work as a system for spotting change.
A few basic principles underlie all the rules. The first is to recognize the impermanence of economic trends and the regular rhythms of change. Recent crises are just the latest reminder that the normal condition of the world is impermanence—an environment prone to booms, busts, and protests.
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